Long term stagnation of the Chinese economy can prompt India to play a vital role among the Southeast-Asian countries to become the century’s destination by successfully enacting pro-market reforms. "China may be heading toward long-term stagnation, but if India and the nations of Southeast Asia successfully enact pro-market reforms, it may well be an 'Indian Century'," said Nicholas Eberstadt, Derek Scissors, Dan Blumenthal and Sadanand Dhume from American Enterprise Institute, a US think-tank, in an essay published in the Washington Examiner, this week.
"India is also an oasis of stability in a region broiled by radical Islam. An uptick of violence in Afghanistan, as well as a surge in terrorism and sectarian killings of minority Shiite Muslims in Pakistan, underscores the relative calm of India," they wrote.
"Thanks in part to China's slowdown and its unfavorable demographic future, India has a chance to carve out more space for itself in a rapidly changing Asia," the AEI experts wrote. "A more business-friendly Indian government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has renewed optimism about a country with more than 1 billion people," it added.
"Under the right circumstances and provided it follows the right policies, India could outpace its northeastern rival in coming decades. The United States should welcome this," the essay said.
"At its core, an American bet on India is a bet on its economy. This means the overarching goal of policy toward India should be to help economic reform. At the same time, Washington should strive to deepen trade ties to bind the two democracies more closely to each other," they said.
The experts opined that, the US should encourage India to become a more competitive, market-oriented economy as an end in itself, even if specific reforms offer no immediate reward for American firms.
As a model for Asia's smaller countries to emulate, India, being a democratic and pluralistic country with a large English-speaking middle class, appeals naturally to Americans. The thriving, 3 million-strong Indian-American community will act as a bridge between the two countries. Even though the state continues to play a large role in its economy, India also hosts a dynamic private sector, that has more in common with its counterparts in the United States and Britain, than with China's opaque, state-controlled firms, the experts said.
By Premji
