It has been confirmed that the el nino weather pattern has been affecting the rains in India in the monsoon. It is predicted that this pattern would be in effect from the second half of June to September. With the el nino in effect India would experience its first drought in three years.
The last drought in 2009 has forced the nation, the largest producer of foods, to import sugar and thereby increase the prices in the world.
The IMD has estimated that we would experience a rainfall that is less than 90% of a long term (50 year) average rainfall stats from mid-June to September. In the past two months, in June and July, the rainfall was 19% below the average which is close to the 23% deficit the country has experienced in 2009.
The agriculture would be drastically affected by the drought. GDP from agriculture is expected to fall to Zero from the present 2.8 percent due to the drought and deficit as estimated by Nomura, a brokerage in Japan.
Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar is visiting the most affected states first. All the ministers will meet again to discuss the situation when he returns to Delhi.